Promotion Between Tiers

Intent

If memory has tiers, name the rule that promotes between them, make it computable, and be able to say why any given record is in the tier it is in.

The problem

Tiering is the most common structure in agent memory: short-term and long-term, hot and archival, working and durable, core and recall. It is close to universal and almost free to describe, which is why nearly every system has it.

What is not universal is an answer to what moves a memory up. The usual shapes:

• No rule at all. A summarizer runs every N turns and whatever it emits is now long-term. The tier boundary is a schedule, not a judgement.
• A rule inside a prompt. An LLM is asked to decide what is worth keeping, with the criteria in prose that nobody reviews as policy.
• A rule nobody validated. A formula with named coefficients, shipped at their defaults, with no ablation.

All three produce the same failure, and it is quiet: the long-term store fills with whatever the promotion path happened to favour, and because the path is unstated nobody can say what that was. Memory does not break; it slowly stops being about the right things, and the only symptom is answers getting less useful in ways nobody can attribute.

A second failure follows from the first. If promotion is unexplained, so is its inverse — a record that never promotes is invisible, and not promoting is the decision with no error message.

The pattern

tier boundary
   │
   ├─ a written rule, computable from stored fields
   ├─ inputs that are separately meaningful, not one blended score
   ├─ a ceiling: what a record's provenance forbids, regardless of use
   └─ a record of why this one promoted, queryable later

%% caption: promotion runs on a written rule over separable stored inputs, capped by provenance and recorded with its reasons; blending the inputs into one score is what makes a promotion unattributable
flowchart TD
    Rec["record in the lower tier"] --> Rule["written rule, computed from stored fields"]
    In["separable inputs:<br/>frequency · recency · importance · corroboration"] --> Rule
    Rule --> Cap{"does provenance justify the climb?"}
    Cap -- "no" --> Stay["stays — capped by its source,<br/>however often it is used"]
    Cap -- "yes" --> Up["promoted to the upper tier"]
    Up --> Why["decision recorded: inputs, rule, actor"]
    In -. "blended into one score" .-> Opaque["cannot attribute<br/>the promotion"]

Four requirements:

1. Write the rule down, as something a program computes rather than a sentence a model interprets. A formula with named coefficients can be ablated; a prompt cannot.
2. Keep the inputs separable. Frequency, recency, importance and corroboration answer different questions, and a single blended scalar cannot say which one promoted a record.
3. Give provenance a veto. Use should be able to raise a record's standing and never past what its source justifies — otherwise a guess that got popular becomes canon.
4. Record the decision, so "why is this in long-term memory" is a lookup.

Why it works

It converts a boundary that everything crosses into a decision that can be examined. Once the rule is computable you can ablate it, once the inputs are separable you can attribute a promotion, and once provenance caps the ladder the worst failure — a popular error becoming permanent — is structurally unavailable rather than merely unlikely.

Tradeoffs

• A written rule invites false confidence. A formula looks principled at a glance; unvalidated coefficients are a prompt with extra steps.
• Separable inputs cost schema. Four fields where one would do, each needing a definition and a writer.
• A ceiling can be wrong. If provenance is asserted rather than verified, the cap inherits the honesty of whatever set it.
• Promotion is one-way in most implementations. Demotion is rarer and harder, and a monotonic ladder means an early mistake is permanent unless correction lives on a different axis.

Cost to adopt

Build: the fields the rule reads, the rule itself, and a place to record why a promotion happened.

Forces elsewhere: retrieval must respect tiers or they are decoration, and the background pass that promotes needs the same recoverability as any other — a promotion pass that dies halfway leaves the boundary in an undefined state.

Ongoing: the coefficients are a tuning surface with no natural feedback. If nothing measures promotion quality, the rule is frozen at whatever its author guessed.

Skip it if you have one tier. Two tiers with no rule is worse than one tier, because it implies a judgement that is not being made.

Seen in the atlas

Tiering is everywhere; the rule is not.

MemoryOS writes the rule down, which is the right instinct and shows the trap: alpha·N_visit + beta·L_interaction + gamma·R_recency with all three coefficients left at 1 and no ablation. Because the terms are summed, L_interaction means a long conversation scores like a frequently-revisited one — verbosity is indistinguishable from importance, and long-term memory is built from what wins. It also keeps a second access counter for LFU eviction, so the number that decides what is hot and the number that decides what is deleted can disagree about the same segment.

Core Memory has the most developed answer, and it is a ceiling rather than a score. Grounding — observed, extracted, inferred, speculative — caps how far a record can climb: a speculative bead "cannot reach canonical status", explicitly "not via recall, not even via promotion". Use raises standing; it cannot raise it past what the source justifies. The class is also monotonic, with correction handled on a separate axis, so superseding a class-A claim preserves the record of how carefully it was established.

NOOA Memory separates the inputs properly — importance, salience, confidence and a spaced-repetition strength, where retrieval moves only the last. Its paper adds the detail that closes the loop: "injected memories are not reinforced, so what the harness surfaces does not distort the usage signal."

Mercury grades confidence, importance and durability separately and keeps a subconscious tier below active recall. Redis Agent Memory Server has the inverse — the atlas's most developed demotion policy, combining TTL, inactivity, pinning, per-type allowlists and budget pruning.

The larger group tiers without a stated rule: Letta's core, archival and recall; MemOS, whose promotion varies by cube; LoongFlow's stm/mtm/ltm with auto-compress. The tiers are real; what crosses them is a schedule.

Cambium states the gate as a prohibition rather than a mechanism, which is the cleanest formulation of it in the atlas. Its status standard says "File existence, a resolvable wiki link, the existence of an external checklist item, or a large page word count MUST NOT automatically change any status", and "A status MUST NOT be upgraded directly because the file exists, its length reaches a threshold, or automated checks pass." Its twelve deterministic scripts emit exactly two outcomes, fail and candidate, and the freshness check spells out the consequence: candidates "only feed the maintenance-run candidate list and never change any status axis of a page." So the tooling can block a batch and nominate work, and has no outcome that promotes.

Worth separating from the systems above: the usual failure is a promotion gate whose criterion is cheap — an age, a hit count, a threshold — and Cambium's contribution is naming those exact signals as the ones that must not qualify. Its evidence ladder (signal → single-source → corroborated → validated) is climbed by judgement only. The cost is the honest one: nothing in the repository enforces the prohibition, because the component that would enforce it is the one being prohibited.

The measured warning comes from NOOA Memory's paper, and it applies to whatever promotion produces: reflection records are "22% of rows yet ~1% of both read channels". A fifth of that store is distilled material that retrieval essentially never surfaces. Promotion succeeded; usefulness did not follow.

dsh-ai-memory shows both ways a tier rule fails without any model involved. Its chat preset expires a working note at the same age it would promote it, and consolidate checks the TTL first, so under the preset the plugin ships nothing ever moves from working to episodic — while the type's own doc comment says to set retention longer than the promote delay. Its episodic-to-profile bar is two accesses, counted by recall, and the per-prompt prefetch calls recall for 128 hits with no floor, so being injected twice is being accessed twice and the untimed profile tier fills with whatever lasted a week. NOOA's rule that injected memories are not reinforced is the fix.

Tests to require

• State the rule, then compute it by hand for ten promoted records and ten that were not. If you cannot, it is not a rule.
• Ablate each term. If removing one does not change which records promote, it is not doing work.
• Feed the system a long, low-value exchange and a short, decisive one, and check which promotes.
• Assert a low-provenance record cannot reach the top tier by any amount of retrieval.
• Measure what fraction of promoted records are ever read back. If the top tier is not being retrieved, promotion is a cost with no return.
• Kill the promotion pass halfway and assert the tier boundary is still well-defined.
• Check that retrieval actually respects the tiers, rather than ranking across all of them and rendering the boundary decorative.

Related patterns

• Decay and reinforcement
• Trust-state machine
• Evidence before belief
• Gate the expensive path