P(doom) Calculator

Choose your best guess for each stage and how uncertain you are (± pts).

P(doom)

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Your best guess, ignoring uncertainty.

10th percentile

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An optimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

90th percentile

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A pessimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

Range

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Full range of possible outcomes.
Stage with the widest probability range will be highlighted here.

Stephen Hawking cautioned: "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."