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P(doom) Calculator

P(doom) –

Calibration preview

P(doom): – Spread: –

Choose your quiz path

Start by selecting a path: let us decide the right level (recommended) or jump directly into the beginner, medium, or expert quiz.

Drag inside the bell curves to shift your estimate left or right.

Choose your best guess for each stage and how uncertain you are (± pts).

P(doom)

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Your best guess, ignoring uncertainty.

10th percentile

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An optimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

90th percentile

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A pessimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

Range

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Full range of possible outcomes.

Stage with the widest probability range will be highlighted here.

Share these parameters to contribute to aggregate stats. View stats.

Stephen Hawking cautioned: "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."