P(doom) Calculator

Choose your best guess for each stage and how uncertain you are (± pts).

P(doom)

Your best guess, ignoring uncertainty.

10th percentile

An optimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

90th percentile

A pessimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

Range

Full range of possible outcomes.
Stage with the widest probability range will be highlighted here.

Share these parameters to contribute to aggregate stats. View stats.