Calc
Stats
About
Exhibits

P(doom) Calculator

Probability that AI causes a global catastrophe.

P(doom) –

Calibration preview

P(doom): – Spread: –

Choose your quiz path

Drag inside the bell curves to shift your estimate left or right.

Choose your best guess for each stage and how uncertain you are (± pts).

P(doom)

–

Your best guess, ignoring uncertainty.

10th percentile

–

An optimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

90th percentile

–

A pessimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

Range

–

Full range of possible outcomes.

Stage with the widest probability range will be highlighted here.

Your answers join a public dataset.

Stephen Hawking cautioned: "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."