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P(doom) Calculator

Probability that AI causes a global catastrophe.

Set three probabilities, that powerful AI arrives, that it then behaves dangerously, and that the danger then becomes a global catastrophe, and the calculator multiplies them into your P(doom). A short quiz proposes a starting point from what you already know.

P(doom) –

Calibration preview

P(doom): – Spread: –

Choose your quiz path

Drag inside the bell curves to shift your estimate left or right.

Choose your best guess for each stage and how uncertain you are (± pts).

P(doom)

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Your best guess, ignoring uncertainty.

10th percentile

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An optimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

90th percentile

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A pessimistic outcome, given your uncertainty.

Range

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Full range of possible outcomes.

Stage with the widest probability range will be highlighted here.

Your answers join a public dataset.

Stephen Hawking cautioned: "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."